On BRICS 2030
The BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has long been regarded as a dynamic and influential group in the global geopolitical landscape. Looking ahead to 2030, the bloc is poised for significant transformation, fundamentally reshaping the global economic, political, and technological order. With a combined GDP projected to reach approximately $39.1 trillion, BRICS is on track to surpass the economic powerhouses of the United States and the European Union, creating a powerful economic and diplomatic bloc that seeks to challenge Western dominance.
BRICS as a Global Economic Powerhouse
One of the most compelling factors driving BRICS’ future rise is its economic growth trajectory. According to the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2024) and PwC’s “The World in 2050” report, BRICS countries are expected to experience diverse growth patterns, with each nation contributing to the bloc’s overall economic expansion.
China, projected to have a GDP exceeding $27 trillion by 2030, will be the largest contributor to BRICS’ economic growth. With its manufacturing strength and strategic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, China will continue to be the engine of global trade connectivity. China’s industrial base, technological advancements, and state-backed investments in infrastructure will ensure its continued dominance in global supply chains, reinforcing its status as a global economic leader.
India, with an economy forecasted to reach $6.3 trillion by 2030, is another key player in BRICS’ rise. India’s demographic advantage, with a projected population of 1.5 billion by 2027, coupled with its rapidly expanding digital economy, will enable it to play a central role in the global tech landscape. The country’s digital economy, projected to contribute $1 trillion to its GDP by 2030, highlights India’s capacity to lead in areas like artificial intelligence (AI) and digital services. This growth will be crucial as India increasingly positions itself as a hub for global technology innovation.
Brazil, with a projected GDP of $2.8 trillion, remains a major player due to its vast natural resources, especially in commodities such as soybeans, iron ore, and oil. Despite political volatility that could potentially hinder economic growth, Brazil’s role as a commodity giant ensures its continued economic relevance. The nation’s focus on export-driven growth and its strategic importance in the global supply of key raw materials will maintain its importance within the BRICS bloc.
Russia, despite enduring Western sanctions since 2014, is projected to have a GDP of $2.5 trillion by 2030. Russia’s economy, heavily reliant on energy exports, will continue to be an important player in the global energy market. While its geopolitical issues complicate its relations with Western powers, Russia’s pivot towards Asia and its strategic partnerships within BRICS will bolster its economic standing in the years to come.
South Africa, while much smaller in economic size, with a projected GDP of $0.5 trillion, remains a crucial anchor for African influence within BRICS. South Africa’s resource-rich economy and strategic position as a gateway to African markets will continue to enhance its relevance, even as it faces internal challenges like high inequality and unemployment.
Together, these countries are projected to have a combined GDP of $39.1 trillion by 2030, surpassing the projected GDPs of both the United States ($28.2 trillion) and the European Union ($19.5 trillion). This economic shift is set to position BRICS as a powerful economic bloc, capable of rivaling the traditional Western powers in terms of global influence.
Advocating for a Multipolar World
Beyond economics, BRICS is also set to increase its political influence on the global stage. With a collective population of over 3.357 billion people, accounting for 41% of the world’s total population by 2030, BRICS is a major force in global politics. The bloc’s advocacy for a multipolar world, where power is not concentrated in the hands of the United States and Europe, is likely to intensify.
Currently, emerging economies like BRICS countries hold just 40% of voting power in global financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, despite contributing over 35% of global GDP. This disproportionate influence has long been a point of contention within BRICS, and the bloc is expected to push for a larger share of decision-making power within these institutions. As global economic shifts continue, BRICS will demand a more equitable representation for developing nations in global governance.
The New Development Bank (NDB), established by BRICS with an authorized capital of $100 billion, will play a crucial role in advancing the bloc’s political agenda. By financing sustainable infrastructure projects in member countries and developing economies, the NDB is positioning itself as a viable alternative to traditional Western-backed financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. With expectations to disburse $50 billion annually by 2030, the NDB is set to challenge the status quo, particularly in areas like renewable energy and climate change mitigation, where BRICS nations are increasingly investing.
A New Financial Framework
BRICS’ financial cooperation is another area poised for significant growth. The BRICS Payment System, launched in 2018, aims to reduce the bloc’s dependence on the US dollar for intra-BRICS trade. This system, which facilitates trade in local currencies, is expected to handle 20% of intra-BRICS trade by 2030. The move to shift away from the dollar will not only reduce the risk of dollar-based financial instability but also increase the financial autonomy of BRICS nations.
The 16th BRICS Summit, held in 2024, underscored this commitment to enhancing financial cooperation by welcoming the increased use of local currencies for trade. While trade imbalances between BRICS members, especially between China and India, pose challenges, the long-term objective remains clear: to build a more self-sufficient, dollar-independent financial system within the bloc.
China and India at the Forefront of Technological Leadership
Technologically, China and India are at the forefront of BRICS’ rise. China’s investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure, including a projected $3.15 billion in generative AI by 2024, are solidifying its position as a global leader in technology. The country’s tech ecosystem, bolstered by its robust digital infrastructure and state-led innovation, will continue to drive global digital supply chains.
India, with its rapidly growing digital economy, is also positioning itself as a technological powerhouse. The country’s digital sector is expected to contribute $1 trillion to its GDP by 2030, reflecting its growing influence in global technology development. India’s strides in AI and data analytics will play a central role in shaping the future of the global digital economy.
Moreover, joint R&D initiatives within BRICS, such as the BRICS University League, will foster deeper technological integration, ensuring the bloc remains competitive in the global tech race. The emphasis on AI, 5G technology, and digital transformation will be central to BRICS’ strategic agenda.
Internal Divides and External Pressures
Despite its economic and technological progress, BRICS faces several internal and external challenges. China and India, for instance, have long-standing trade and territorial disputes, which were notably exacerbated by the 2020 Ladakh clash. These tensions could pose risks to BRICS’ internal cohesion, particularly as India remains highly reliant on Chinese imports, including electronics.
Russia’s geopolitical issues continue to strain its relations with Western nations, as the ongoing sanctions regime has limited Russia’s access to Western markets and technology. However, Russia has increasingly looked towards Asia for economic and diplomatic support, strengthening its ties with China and other BRICS members in the process.
South Africa’s internal issues—high unemployment rates, economic inequality, and infrastructure deficits—pose significant hurdles to its development. Despite its strategic role in representing African interests within BRICS, South Africa will need to address these challenges to ensure its continued growth and stability within the bloc.
BRICS as a Catalyst for Global Change
By 2030, BRICS is expected to emerge as a resilient and influential economic and political bloc. The economic rise of China and India, coupled with the continued importance of Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, positions the bloc as a formidable force in the global order. Through increased cooperation, the promotion of local currencies, and advancements in digital and technological sectors, BRICS is set to challenge the hegemony of the US and EU.
While the bloc faces significant internal and external challenges, its potential to foster a more inclusive and multipolar global order remains considerable. With its economic clout, political ambition, and technological prowess, BRICS is poised to play a central role in shaping the future of global governance by 2030. The evolution of BRICS will not only redefine the global economic balance but also create new opportunities for collaboration and innovation across the developing world.
————
Rajeev Ahmed
The Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus
——————–