On 22 April 2025, the peaceful valley of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir—known for its stunning mountains, green fields, and flowing rivers—turned into a nightmare. Militants from The Resistance Front (TRF), a group tied to Pakistan-based organisations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen, carried out a brutal attack that left 28 people dead, including mostly Indian tourists as well as some from the UAE and Nepal. More than 20 others were injured. This wasn’t just a random act of violence—it shook the whole region and showed how fragile the relationship between India and Pakistan really is. In response, India took the extreme step of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty on 23 April 2025—a move that’s never happened before and signals a serious risk of conflict over something as essential as water.
The Kashmir Conflict’s Enduring Legacy
To really understand the Pahalgam attack, you need to go back to the roots of the Kashmir conflict, which began when British India was split into India and Pakistan in 1947. At the time, Jammu and Kashmir was a princely state ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh. Even though most people in the region were Muslim and it was geographically closer to Pakistan, the Maharaja chose to join India. That sparked the first war between India and Pakistan in 1947–48. A UN-brokered ceasefire in 1949 drew a boundary—called the Ceasefire Line (CFL)—dividing the region into two parts: one controlled by India and the other by Pakistan. But this division didn’t solve the issue—both countries still claim the entire region as their own.The CFL was formalised as the Line of Control (LoC) after the 1971 war and the 1972 Simla Agreement, though the term “LoC” is sometimes retroactively applied to the 1949 line.
Over the years, Kashmir has become a battleground for competing national stories. India sees it as proof of its secular identity and national unity, while Pakistan views it as a promise of self-rule for Muslims that was never fulfilled. The LoC has remained tense, with full-scale wars in 1965, 1971, and 1999 (the Kargil war), along with regular skirmishes and proxy fights. Pakistan’s spy agency, the ISI, has often been accused of supporting militant groups to wage a slow-burning insurgency in the region—something Pakistan denies, though evidence points to training camps and financial aid. On the other side, India has stationed more than half a million troops in Kashmir, a presence that’s drawn criticism for human rights abuses like illegal killings and disappearances, highlighted by groups such as Amnesty International.
Things took a sharp turn in August 2019, when India scrapped Article 370, removing Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and splitting it into two union territories ruled directly from Delhi. India said this was about improving governance and development, but the move was met with heavy backlash. Pakistan cut trade and diplomatic ties, while many Kashmiris saw it as a power grab. The situation worsened when over 85,000 non-Kashmiris were granted residency documents from 2020 onward—seen by many as an effort to change the region’s population makeup. That anger and resentment gave fuel to groups like the TRF, which have used it to justify their violent attacks.
The Pahalgam Attack
The 22 April 2025 attack took place with chilling coordination in Baisaran Valley, often called the “Mini Switzerland of India” because of its breathtaking scenery. Around 2:30 in the afternoon, while tourists were enjoying the fresh spring air and watching ponies grazing, four to six militants came out of the surrounding pine forests.
The human cost was devastating: 28 people were killed, including tourists from across India—places like Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Gujarat, Haryana, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh—as well as visitors from the UAE and Nepal. More than 20 people were seriously injured, overwhelming local hospitals and forcing authorities to fly some victims to Srinagar for treatment. The attack happened during peak tourist season, with over a thousand visitors in the area, making its impact even worse and destroying the fragile calm that had slowly returned to Kashmir in recent years.
The Resistance Front (TRF) later claimed responsibility through encrypted Telegram messages, calling the attack revenge for what they described as India’s occupation and “settler colonialism” in Kashmir. By going after tourists, they hoped to damage the region’s tourism sector—which brings in an estimated USD 1.5 billion a year—and to challenge India’s claims that everything has stabilised since Article 370 was scrapped. Choosing Pahalgam—a peaceful, beautiful, and symbolic place—was no accident. It seems the attack was meticulously designed to cause as much fear and symbolic damage as possible.
India’s Response
India responded quickly and decisively to the 22 April attack. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who cut short a visit to Saudi Arabia, led an emergency meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security in New Delhi. India then rolled out a series of major actions to punish Pakistan and assert its authority:
Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT): On 23 April 2025, India announced it was suspending the IWT, a treaty signed in 1960 that divides the waters of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. India has control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan relies heavily on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) for farming and electricity—accounting for 80% of its irrigation and 40% of its hydroelectric output. By suspending the treaty, India is threatening Pakistan’s agriculture-heavy economy, which contributes 20% to its GDP and supports nearly 40% of its workers. If India diverts water, flows to Pakistan could drop by up to 30%, which Pakistan’s water authority has warned could be disastrous.
Trade and Border Controls: India also closed the Attari-Wagah border—the only road trade route between the two countries—stopping about USD 186 million in yearly trade. Trucks carrying goods like fruits, vegetables, and cement were stuck at the border, causing estimated losses of USD 2.6 million per day.
Diplomatic Clampdown: India expelled Pakistani military advisors, drastically reduced Pakistan’s diplomatic staff in India to just 30 people, and cancelled visas for Pakistani citizens under the SAARC regional agreement, giving them 48 hours to leave.
These actions show India is trying to hurt Pakistan economically and diplomatically without rushing into a full-scale war. But the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has raised legal and strategic concerns. Some experts argue that this move breaks the treaty’s rule that it must remain in force no matter what—something that could hurt India’s credibility at the UN and World Bank, which helped broker the agreement. Others worry that messing with river flows could backfire on India too, especially in regions like Punjab and Rajasthan that also depend on those waters.
Pakistan’s Rebuttal and Regional Fallout
Pakistan’s Foreign Office strongly condemned the attack but denied any government involvement. Despite the tough talk, Pakistan’s choices are limited but potentially impactful. It could secretly increase its support for militant groups, take India to the International Court of Justice, or turn to allies like China for financial help.
The consequences of all this go far beyond just India and Pakistan. In Kashmir, the attack has brought back painful memories of the 1990s insurgency, which left 70,000 people dead and displaced 250,000 more. Local leaders now worry that violence could flare up again, especially if groups like the TRF inspire similar attacks. Other neighbouring countries are also on edge.
Bangladesh, which depends on India for water from the Ganges River, is watching closely. So is Nepal, whose hydropower projects rely on Indian collaboration. And a destabilised Pakistan could make things even worse in Afghanistan, where the return of the Taliban is already making the region volatile.
Geopolitical Ripples
The crisis has caught the attention of major global powers, pulling them into the South Asian spotlight. China, which has long backed Pakistan and invested around £46 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), may condemn the attack but also take a stand against India taking “unilateral actions” like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty. China will be cautious for its desire to protect its trade routes and investments, even though it holds significant influence by controlling the source of the Brahmaputra River, which also flows into India.
The United States, which sees India as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific but still relies on Pakistan for counterterrorism cooperation, may give a mild response—calling for calm but careful not to upset either nuclear-armed country. Russia, traditionally a strong military partner to India but now also building ties with Pakistan, may call for both sides to talk things out.
Meanwhile, Iran and Turkey, which often side with Pakistan ideologically, may offer political support.
The European Union may try to step in as a mediator, pointing to its past experience in handling cross-border disputes, but its actual influence in the region is limited. The United Nations, constrained by the power of veto-holding members, will be under growing pressure to get involved—especially around the water issue, which UN Water has labelled a matter of human rights.
If things escalate further, the fallout could hit the global economy hard. South Asia is a major hub for the textile industry, producing 15% of the world’s exports, and any disruption could rattle global supply chains. Oil prices might also surge if key Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia are pulled into the conflict.
Water as a Political Weapon
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has turned water into a powerful political weapon. Pakistan is especially at risk—its water supply per person has dropped to just 900 cubic metres, below the international threshold for water scarcity. This makes the country highly vulnerable. India’s upstream dams, like the 330 MW Kishanganga project, have already raised alarms in Pakistan over possible water flow manipulation. If India keeps withholding water, it could cut Pakistan’s wheat harvest, potentially causing food shortages, mass protests, and even the displacement of millions.
However, India isn’t immune from consequences either. Diverting too much water could damage its own river systems and harm the environment. It also risks facing international backlash if bodies like the UN or World Bank declare the treaty suspension illegal.
This crisis could have ripple effects far beyond India and Pakistan. China, for instance, might feel emboldened to exert more control over major rivers like the Mekong or Brahmaputra, which flow into other countries. That’s causing concern in downstream nations like Vietnam and Bangladesh. What was once just a theoretical fear—the idea of using water as a political weapon—is now becoming a real and dangerous threat to regional peace and stability.
A Path Forward is Dialogue Over Destruction
The Pahalgam attack and India’s strong reaction have pushed South Asia into completely new and uncertain territory. India wants to send a clear message to Pakistan, but by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, it may actually make things worse—fueling anger and potentially pushing more young people toward extremism. For the 1.8 billion people living in the region, any war would come at an enormous cost: economic collapse, a refugee crisis, and even the threat of nuclear conflict. No one would truly win.
The only real way forward is through open dialogue. The UN or neutral countries like Norway could help mediate peace talks, with the main focus on resolving Kashmir’s status and ensuring water access for everyone. Small steps—like restarting trade and relaxing visa rules—could build trust, but that will only happen if both India and Pakistan put human lives above pride and politics. Importantly, Kashmiris themselves must be involved in the process, since it’s their future that’s most directly affected.
South Asia is connected not just by borders but by shared rivers, mountains, and culture. The violence in Pahalgam demands justice—but also wisdom. Now more than ever, the region faces a choice: continue down a dangerous path, or come together for peace—not just for its own people, but for global stability as well.
—————–
Rajeev Ahmed
The Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus
———————–