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Gaza

The Gaza Conundrum and the Threads of Conflict

March 27, 2025March 29, 2025

In the heart of the Middle East, where the Mediterranean once carried hopes of peace, the Gaza Strip remains caught in relentless conflict. The ceasefire agreed upon in January 2025 has collapsed, and once again, Israeli airstrikes light up the skies over Gaza.

The ceasefire agreed upon in January 2025 offered a brief glimpse of hope in a long and deadly conflict. It was negotiated after more than a year of fighting, which began with Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, that killed 1,200 Israelis. The agreement aimed to reduce tensions gradually through steps like hostage releases and a halt to violence. However, within weeks, it fell apart. Hamas launched rockets into southern Israel, blaming Israel for delaying the easing of the blockade, while Israel retaliated with airstrikes on what it claimed were Hamas military targets. By March 2025, over 300 Palestinians had died in renewed attacks, according to the UN, marking the failure of the ceasefire.

This ongoing cycle of violence stems from deep mistrust. Israel accuses Hamas of rebuilding its arsenal with Iranian-supplied rockets, while Hamas argues that Israel failed to withdraw its troops from Gaza’s borders as promised. Political pressures worsen the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reliant on a far-right coalition, faces calls to destroy Hamas completely, as any compromise could weaken his government. Meanwhile, Hamas, despite heavy losses, must appear strong to its people, who are suffering severe hardships—more than 90% displaced and Gaza’s healthcare system on the verge of collapse, according to UN reports from late 2024. In this atmosphere of desperation and rigid ideology, peace remains elusive.

Achieving peace is extraordinarily difficult due to several major obstacles. One of the biggest challenges is the division within Palestinian leadership. Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, refuses to recognize Israel, while the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs parts of the West Bank, struggles with corruption and has failed to prevent Israeli settlement expansion. This deep political divide, which has existed since the 2006 elections, prevents the Palestinians from presenting a united front in negotiations.

Israel’s security concerns present another major challenge. The attacks on October 7, the deadliest in its history, have strengthened the country’s resolve to prevent future threats. To do so, Israel insists on controlling Gaza’s borders and airspace, arguing it is necessary for safety. However, Palestinians see this as a form of oppression that restricts their freedom. The situation in the West Bank also complicates peace efforts. Around 700,000 Israeli settlers now live there—up from 400,000 twenty years ago—making it harder to establish a Palestinian state. Although the International Court of Justice ruled in 2004 that these settlements are illegal, they have continued to expand, further crushing Palestinian hopes for independence.

Jerusalem remains a deeply contested city, holding religious and national significance for both Israelis and Palestinians. Israel annexed East Jerusalem in 1980 and considers it part of its capital, but most countries do not recognize this claim. Palestinians, in turn, see East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state. Another key issue is the right of return for Palestinian refugees. There are 5.9 million registered refugees, the descendants of those displaced in 1948. Palestinians insist they have the right to return to their homeland, but Israel refuses, fearing it would change the country’s demographic balance.

Gaza’s conflict is not just about Israel and the Palestinians; it is also influenced by powerful regional players. Iran, a major supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, supplies them with weapons, including rockets and drones. In 2024 alone, Israel intercepted shipments worth millions, linking Gaza to Iran’s larger struggle for influence against Saudi Arabia and the West. Saudi Arabia, while exploring closer ties with Israel to counter Iran, has made it clear that Palestinian statehood must come first—a position reaffirmed at the 2025 Riyadh Summit. Egypt, which borders Gaza, often acts as a mediator in ceasefires but prioritizes its own security and economic concerns, particularly in the Sinai region, where militants pose a threat.

Jordan, home to 2.1 million Palestinian refugees, worries that more displaced people from Gaza could destabilize the country. Syria and Lebanon, despite their own crises, continue to support Hamas through Hezbollah, which receives weapons from Iran. Yemen’s Houthis, another ally of Iran, occasionally launch drones at Israel. Turkey, under President Erdoğan, strongly supports the Palestinian cause with aid and political backing, even hosting Hamas leaders in Ankara. These overlapping interests make any peace effort extremely complicated.

In February 2025, the Trump administration proposed a radical plan: relocate Gaza’s 2.2 million residents to other countries, possibly Jordan or Egypt, and transform Gaza into a luxury coastal destination. The response was immediate and harsh. Egypt and Jordan condemned it as an attempt at ethnic cleansing, warning it would destabilize the region. The Palestinian Authority and Hamas rejected it outright, and even U.S. politicians, such as Senator Bernie Sanders, dismissed it as unrealistic. By August 2025, the plan was abandoned due to lack of support from Arab nations and the UN.

The proposal failed because it ignored the key issues of Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, and borders—problems that demand careful negotiation. Seen as a one-sided gift to Israel, it alienated Palestinians and regional leaders, offering no real path to peace. Rather than solving the conflict, it tried to force a drastic solution that no one would accept.

For decades, Palestinians have turned to the UN for support, but its resolutions often go nowhere. The U.S. has vetoed 46 Security Council measures critical of Israel since 1972, continuing this trend in 2025. Meanwhile, Russia and China use the conflict to challenge Washington. The 2002 peace roadmap stalled due to mistrust, and past negotiations—like the Oslo Accords (1993) and Camp David (2000)—collapsed over disputes about Jerusalem and Israeli settlements. The 2020 Abraham Accords improved Israel’s ties with the UAE and Bahrain but ignored Palestinian concerns, offering diplomacy without a real solution. Without strong enforcement or genuine compromise, these efforts remain empty gestures.

The idea of two states—one for Israelis and one for Palestinians—has been central to peace efforts since the 1993 Oslo Accords. However, it is becoming harder to achieve. Israeli settlements have divided the West Bank into disconnected areas, with 163 outposts recorded by 2024, according to Peace Now. Palestinian political divisions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority make governing difficult, while Israel’s security concerns conflict with Palestinian sovereignty. A single state where both groups have equal rights worries Israelis, who fear losing their Jewish majority, while Palestinians fear continued oppression. Another option, a shared confederation where both sides cooperate on trade and security but maintain separate identities, requires trust—something that has been missing since the failure of past peace deals.

Despite the challenges, small steps could move toward peace, especially in Gaza. Rebuilding Gaza with $20 billion in international aid, as estimated by the World Bank, could help address the humanitarian crisis while preventing funds from being used for military purposes. A multinational security force, similar to the UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, could help maintain stability and prevent further violence. Steps like prisoner exchanges—Israel holds 5,000 Palestinians, while Hamas holds dozens of Israelis—and easing travel restrictions could help build trust. Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize ties with Israel in exchange for Palestinian progress, discussed at the 2025 Jeddah talks, could also encourage cooperation. Bigger issues, such as sharing control of Jerusalem under international supervision and compensating Palestinian refugees, could be addressed using models like Bosnia’s 1995 Dayton Accords. Though difficult, these steps offer a practical way forward.

Trump’s vision of turning Gaza into a tourist hotspot is inspired by Croatia’s recovery after its war. Gaza’s 40km coastline has potential, but with 90% of buildings damaged, according to the UN, it would take billions of dollars and lasting peace to make it happen. While Vietnam rebuilt after 1975, Gaza’s high population density (5,500 people per square kilometre) and ongoing blockade make the comparison difficult. Without stability, investment, and reconciliation, such dreams remain out of reach.

As the sun sets over the Mediterranean, turning Gaza’s shores golden, one can imagine a future of peace instead of war. But this future will only come if Israelis, Palestinians, and the world choose wisdom, courage, and compassion. The failed truce, outside interference, and Trump’s flawed plan all show that peace needs balance, not bold gestures. Only through compromise and determination can Gaza move beyond conflict and become a symbol of hope.

Rajeev Ahmed

On Gaza

The Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus

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