On Taiwan Strait
The Taiwan Strait is still one of the world’s biggest hotspots for conflict. In recent years, the tension between China and Taiwan has only grown. As of today, there are three main possibilities for what could happen this year: China might launch a full military attack on Taiwan, try to surround and pressure it with a blockade, or things might just stay the way they are.
A Fragile Balance
Right now, the situation is tense but stable. Taiwan runs itself as a democracy, but China sees it as part of its own territory and says it wants to reunite with it — even if that means using force (according to the Council on Foreign Relations). Since Lai Ching-te became Taiwan’s president in May 2024, he’s been tougher on China. In March 2025, he introduced new rules to fight against spying and political interference. China reacted quickly, holding two days of military drills near Taiwan in April 2025 (as reported by The New York Times and Reuters).
Economically, Taiwan and China are closely linked. A big part of Taiwan’s economy relies on selling goods to China. But lately, there’s been some pulling apart. The Atlantic Council points out that although Taiwan still gains from this trade, China is now more reliant on Taiwan’s advanced computer chips — especially as China’s own economy struggles.
Around the world, the US is sticking to its strategy of being vague but supportive. It sells weapons to Taiwan and keeps informal ties, but doesn’t officially recognise it as a separate country. At the same time, it warns against any attempt by either side to change things unilaterally (US State Department).
Military and Economic Situation
China has set its defence budget for 2025 at $245 billion — a 7.2% increase from last year. In comparison, Taiwan plans to spend about $19.74 billion, which is over 3% of its total economy, according to President Lai Ching-te (AP News, NPR). The difference in military power between the two sides is huge. China has around 2 million active soldiers and over half a million in reserve. Taiwan, by contrast, has just over 200,000 active troops, but more than 2.3 million in reserve (Global Firepower, 2025). China also has 625,000 paramilitary personnel, while Taiwan has only 55,000.
Taiwan’s defence approach, called the Overall Defense Concept, focuses on using its unique geography and civilian infrastructure to resist an invasion — basically fighting smart, not big. But some experts, like those at CSIS, doubt this would be enough against China’s rapidly modernising military (The Diplomat).
On the economic side, Taiwan has some serious weak points. It relies on imports for 98% of its energy and 70% of its food (Enerdata, FFTC). And its fuel reserves are pretty low — it only has enough natural gas for 11 days, coal for 39 days, and oil for 146 days, based on figures from China Observers. This makes Taiwan especially vulnerable if China were to launch a blockade.
So, when looking at Taiwan’s risks, the heavy dependence on imported energy and food, along with limited fuel stockpiles, are big concerns.
Scenario 1: Invasion
If China were to invade Taiwan, it would likely involve a huge military operation by sea, using its updated weapons and equipment. Lately, China has introduced things like new landing ships and tools to cut undersea internet cables, which would help them isolate Taiwan (Chatham House).
But experts think a full invasion in 2025 is unlikely. The main reasons? First, the U.S. might step in, thanks to the Taiwan Relations Act. Second, it would be economically disastrous — not just for China, but for the whole world. Groups like the Quincy Institute say the costs are simply too high. China’s recent military drills in February and April 2025 — including 22 warplanes crossing the line that divides the Taiwan Strait — are seen as shows of force rather than signs that an invasion is coming right away (CFR).
Scenario 2: Blockade
A blockade would be a less aggressive move than a full invasion but still a serious way to pressure Taiwan. Instead of fighting directly, China could try to choke Taiwan’s economy. According to CSIS, there are three ways this might happen: a full-on military blockade, a mining of sea routes, or a more limited and targeted one.
Taiwan is particularly vulnerable here. It imports nearly all its energy and most of its food, and its fuel reserves would only last a few weeks. Cutting off its trade routes could slash imports and exports by half. This would also throw global tech markets into chaos, since Taiwan makes so many semiconductors — with over $2 trillion in economic damage expected if this happens (Rhodium Group).
China could use its navy, air force, coast guard, and even civilian boats to pull this off. They’ve already been practising with joint patrols. Taiwan and its allies, especially the U.S., could respond with military ships and sanctions. But that raises the risk of things spiraling into a wider conflict.
Scenario 3: Status Quo (No Major Change)
This is the most likely outcome for now — things stay tense, but no big war breaks out. Taiwan and China keep having political and military friction, but they also depend on each other economically. Even though Taiwan’s investment in China dropped by 50% between 2018 and 2019 (Heritage Foundation), it still sends a lot of exports there.
The U.S. continues to play a big role, selling weapons like the new F-16V fighter jets and giving diplomatic backing to Taiwan (Bloomberg). These moves send a message to China not to go too far.
Still, China hasn’t stopped testing boundaries. In February 2025, 22 of its military aircraft crossed the line in the Taiwan Strait — part of its so-called “grey-zone” tactics, which are aggressive but fall short of actual war (CFR).
The Lowy Institute thinks China’s President Xi Jinping prefers this kind of pressure over starting a full-blown war, which is risky. But recent comments from Chinese leaders, like Premier Li Qiang repeating China’s promise to “reunify” with Taiwan in March 2025, show they’re not backing down (Reuters). Global diplomacy is also shifting — for example, the G7 left out the “One China policy” from its March 2025 statement, which could signal growing support for Taiwan (Reuters).
Risk Forecasting and Military Buildup
Recent changes in military capabilities show that the balance of power is shifting. China’s army (PLA) has introduced new tools like landing ships and equipment to cut undersea cables, which makes defence planning harder for both Taiwan and the U.S. (Chatham House).
Experts have different views about the risk of conflict. Global Guardian believes there’s a risk window between 2024 and 2028. However, The Diplomat points out that many analysts think the risk remains low for now, mainly because starting a war would be incredibly costly for everyone involved. The U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) also notes that any military clash would badly disrupt global trade — especially the semiconductor market — which acts as a major reason to avoid war.
Conclusion
Even though China is getting stronger militarily and acting more aggressively, an all-out invasion of Taiwan in 2025 still seems unlikely. The main reasons are the high economic and military costs, the risk of U.S. involvement, and strong global opposition.
A more likely option is a blockade, where China would try to choke Taiwan’s economy without starting a full war. That’s backed up by recent military drills and the fact that Taiwan is vulnerable in areas like energy and food supplies.
Still, the most realistic short-term outcome might be a continuation of the current situation — high tensions, military posturing, but no major outbreak of war. Economic ties and diplomatic efforts are helping keep things stable for now. But the situation is unpredictable, and unexpected events could quickly change things. That’s why it’s important to keep watching developments closely and stay prepared for any scenario.
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Geopolits Research Desk
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