On India and Pakistan
The Origins of the Conflict
The India-Pakistan rivalry dates back to 1947, when British India was divided into two nations—India, with a Hindu majority, and Pakistan, predominantly Muslim. This partition led to one of the largest migrations in history, forcing around 15 million people to move across borders. The chaos sparked horrific violence, with estimates of fatalities ranging between 200,000 and 2 million. A key flashpoint was Kashmir, where the local ruler’s decision to join India triggered the first war between the two nations in 1947–48, setting the stage for decades of hostility.
The ongoing tensions come at a steep economic price. Experts suggest that if India and Pakistan normalized trade relations, Pakistan’s exports could surge by 80%, adding an estimated $25 billion to its economy (based on 2022 figures). However, hostilities continue to take a human toll—when trade was suspended in 2019, over 9,000 families in India’s Amritsar district were directly affected. On the strategic front, South Asia remains a high-risk zone due to nuclear capabilities on both sides. Meanwhile, China’s heavy investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the United States’ strengthening alliance with India add further layers of geopolitical complexity.
Over the years, diplomatic agreements like the Simla Accord and the Lahore Declaration aimed to ease tensions. But moments of peace were often shattered by fresh conflicts, such as the Kargil War in 1999. Recent efforts, like the 2021 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control, offer glimpses of hope, but deep-seated mistrust lingers. International players also shape the conflict—China backs Pakistan with economic and military support, while the US reinforces its strategic partnership with India, ensuring that the region remains a crucial theatre of global power politics.
A Deep Dive into a Complex Rivalry and Geopolitics
The tense relationship between India and Pakistan is shaped by their shared history, ongoing conflicts, and deep-rooted geopolitical tensions. From past events to economic consequences and strategic power plays, understanding this volatile dynamic is key to making sense of South Asia’s political landscape.
The seeds of the India-Pakistan conflict were sown long before the subcontinent’s division in 1947. British colonial rule played a significant role in fueling religious and political divides, using a “divide and rule” strategy that intensified Hindu-Muslim tensions. This led to the formation of the Indian National Congress and the All-India Muslim League, with the former pushing for a united India and the latter, under Muhammad Ali Jinnah, advocating for a separate Muslim state. Events like the 1905 partition of Bengal and the deadly Direct Action Day riots in 1946 (which left thousands dead in Calcutta) cemented the ideological rift between the two communities.
The actual partition, hastily overseen by Lord Mountbatten, saw British lawyer Cyril Radcliffe draw the borders of India and Pakistan in just five weeks—using outdated maps and little firsthand knowledge of the region. The results were catastrophic. An estimated 15 million people were displaced as they moved across the new borders, and communal violence in regions like Punjab and Bengal led to mass killings, with the death toll ranging from 200,000 to 2 million. In Kashmir, the decision of its Hindu ruler to join India led to the first war between the two countries (1947–48), ending in the creation of the Line of Control (LoC)—a border that remains heavily contested to this day.
Beyond political and military battles, the way partition is remembered and taught in schools has played a huge role in shaping national identities in both countries. In Pakistan, textbooks frame partition as a heroic struggle for Muslim independence, often blaming Hindus for the violence, reinforcing national unity around the idea of Pakistan as a Muslim state. The curriculum even includes objectives such as promoting the “ideology of Pakistan” and highlighting the “Muslim struggle for independence.” A typical Pakistani history book might state, “Hindus were responsible for the bloodshed during partition.”
In contrast, Indian textbooks generally present a more balanced narrative, acknowledging violence on both sides, with estimates of deaths ranging between 200,000 and 500,000. Some sources even question the scale of killings attributed to different groups. This divergence in historical perspectives has fueled generational distrust, making diplomatic reconciliation even more challenging.
The Major Sticking Points in a Longstanding Rivalry
At the center of India-Pakistan tensions lies Kashmir, a region claimed in full by both nations but physically divided by the Line of Control (LoC). The roots of this dispute trace back to 1947 when the partition left the fate of princely states unresolved. Since then, India and Pakistan have fought three major wars over Kashmir—in 1947–48, 1965, and 1999 (Kargil)—without a lasting resolution.
The Kargil conflict in particular saw Pakistani troops infiltrate Indian-controlled territory, sparking intense battles. India managed to reclaim nearly 80% of the area before diplomatic pressure, primarily from the United States, led to a ceasefire. But the issue remains far from settled, keeping the region on edge and fueling periodic skirmishes.
While Kashmir is the most high-profile dispute, water-sharing disagreements and cross-border terrorism have further strained relations. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 was designed to fairly distribute river resources between the two nations, but tensions over water rights continue to surface.
More pressing, however, are India’s allegations that Pakistan harbors and supports militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad. Attacks such as the 2008 Mumbai massacre and the 2019 Pulwama bombing, which killed 40 Indian security personnel, have led to major diplomatic and military standoffs. These incidents have reinforced distrust and heightened security concerns on both sides.
Both India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998, introducing a dangerous element to their rivalry. While nuclear capabilities act as a deterrent to full-scale war, they also raise the stakes of any escalation. Any miscalculation—especially in moments of heightened tension—could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region.
Over the years, multiple diplomatic efforts have aimed to reduce hostilities. The Simla Agreement (1972), signed after Pakistan’s defeat in the 1971 war (which led to Bangladesh’s independence), formally established the LoC and committed both nations to resolving disputes bilaterally. The Lahore Declaration (1999), an attempt by Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif to promote nuclear risk reduction, was quickly overshadowed by the Kargil conflict.
More recent initiatives, like the 2021 LoC ceasefire agreement, have temporarily lowered violence, but deep-seated mistrust remains a barrier to lasting peace. Every time diplomatic progress is made, fresh terror attacks—such as the 2016 Pathankot assault—derail momentum, pushing both sides back to square one.
What India and Pakistan Are Losing
The ongoing tension between India and Pakistan isn’t just a political and military issue—it carries a massive economic price tag. Research shows that if both nations normalized trade, Pakistan’s exports could surge by 80%, adding a potential $25 billion to its economy based on 2022 figures. India alone accounts for 85% of Pakistan’s untapped trade potential, making the economic loss even more glaring.
However, political hostilities continue to block progress. When Pakistan suspended trade with India in 2019 after the Pulwama attack, it wasn’t just governments that suffered—the decision affected over 9,300 families in Amritsar, India, who relied on cross-border trade for their livelihoods.
Pakistan’s economy has been struggling, with an average annual growth of just 4% between 2010 and 2022. Its debt-to-GDP ratio has surged from 55% to 76%, while foreign exchange reserves have shrunk to $7.2 billion—barely enough to cover six weeks of imports. Meanwhile, neighboring Bangladesh, with a stronger growth rate of 6.2% and a much lower debt burden (rising from 30% to 39% of GDP), has outpaced Pakistan in economic stability.
India, on the other hand, has significantly larger forex reserves—$405 billion—but is also seeing a slowdown, with GDP growth projected to drop to 6.6%. Despite these economic challenges, India remains in a far stronger position than Pakistan, whose trade deficit stands at a staggering $31.2 billion.
Experts argue that both nations are losing out on major economic benefits by keeping their borders closed. Joint investments in energy, water management, and trade could create a powerful “peace constituency,” benefiting millions of people on both sides. Instead, resources continue to be diverted towards military spending, deepening the economic divide.
In a region with so much economic potential, the cost of conflict is clear: every day of hostility means another lost opportunity for growth, stability, and shared prosperity.
How the India-Pakistan Conflict Shapes Politics, Strategy, and Global Influence
The India-Pakistan conflict isn’t just a border dispute—it plays a major role in shaping domestic politics in both countries. In India, national security has become a rallying cry, with events like the 2019 Pulwama airstrikes boosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election campaign. The message is clear: strong leadership is needed to defend the nation. This strategy has proven effective in shaping voter sentiment.
In Pakistan, the conflict reinforces the military’s dominance in politics. The perceived threat from India has historically given the military significant power over civilian governments. A key example is the Kargil War, where tensions between then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the military exposed internal power struggles. Both countries often use tough rhetoric against each other to distract from domestic challenges, keeping the conflict alive in political discourse.
Why South Asia is a Global Hotspot
With over 1.8 billion people, South Asia holds immense strategic importance. It sits at the crossroads of Asia and the Middle East, boasts key energy resources, and is home to two nuclear-armed nations—India and Pakistan. The region’s importance extends beyond its borders, drawing in global powers with competing interests.
China’s massive investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), worth billions, have created a new layer of geopolitical tension. At the same time, China’s border disputes with India add to an already fragile balance. The United States, meanwhile, has been recalibrating its role in the region, especially after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, affecting overall stability. The Indian Ocean, a critical trade hub, further raises the stakes, with major powers vying for influence over these key maritime routes.
The Role of Global Players
Global powers have long influenced the India-Pakistan dynamic. During the Cold War, Pakistan aligned with the US, joining alliances like SEATO and CENTO in hopes of military support. However, during the 1965 war, the US imposed an arms embargo on both nations, pushing Pakistan closer to China. Today, China remains Pakistan’s strongest ally, backing its nuclear program and investing nearly $43 billion in projects like Gwadar Port, which India sees as a potential Chinese naval outpost. This relationship gives Pakistan economic and strategic advantages but also complicates India’s security calculus.
Meanwhile, the US has increasingly strengthened ties with India, signing major defense agreements and positioning India as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific. Washington’s relationship with Pakistan, however, has become more transactional, focused primarily on counterterrorism efforts. Adding to the complexity, China frequently uses its veto power at the UN to shield Pakistan from sanctions related to terrorism, reinforcing India’s concerns about a two-front threat from both China and Pakistan.
The India-Pakistan conflict isn’t just about territorial disputes—it’s deeply tied to political power struggles, strategic ambitions, and global rivalries. As major players like China and the US continue to shift their alliances, the region remains a geopolitical powder keg with no easy resolution in sight.
India-Pakistan Conflict, Challenges, and the Path Forward
India and Pakistan both maintain formidable military forces, but there is a clear gap in resources. India, with 1.4 million active troops and a defense budget of $58 billion (as of 2018), significantly outweighs Pakistan’s 653,800 troops and $11 billion budget. India has also invested in cutting-edge fighter jets like the Rafale, while Pakistan has focused on strengthening its missile capabilities, particularly its nuclear deterrence.
Both nations are actively modernizing their forces. India’s joint military exercises with the US enhance its strategic readiness, while Pakistan deepens its defense ties with China, reflecting its preparedness for future conflicts. Despite their differences, nuclear deterrence plays a crucial role in preventing all-out war, keeping tensions at a delicate balance.
Efforts to resolve the India-Pakistan conflict repeatedly hit roadblocks, both domestically and internationally. In India, hardline nationalist groups resist any compromises, viewing Pakistan with deep suspicion. On the other side, Pakistan’s military—arguably the most powerful institution in the country—plays a dominant role in shaping foreign policy, often prioritizing its strategic interests over diplomatic solutions. The result? A cycle of failed peace talks, especially after terrorist attacks that further erode trust.
On the global stage, external influences complicate matters. China’s massive investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) strengthen Islamabad’s position, while the US maintains strategic ties with India, particularly in counterbalancing China’s regional influence. Meanwhile, unresolved disputes over terrorism—such as India’s accusations that Pakistan harbors militant groups—continue to stall any meaningful breakthroughs.
What Lies Ahead?
The India-Pakistan conflict is deeply rooted in history, politics, and strategic interests, making it one of the most complex rivalries in the world. While diplomacy remains the most viable path to peace, domestic resistance, economic burdens, and shifting global alliances make resolution difficult.
Both nations officially prefer bilateral negotiations, but lasting peace may require external mediation, trust-building efforts, and economic cooperation. As South Asia’s role in global geopolitics grows, finding a way to de-escalate tensions isn’t just a regional necessity—it’s crucial for global stability.
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Rajeev Ahmed
The Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus