On India-China Border
The border between India and China stretches about 3,488 kilometres across tough Himalayan terrain and remains one of the most tense and sensitive areas in Asia. Both countries have been rapidly expanding their infrastructure and military presence along this line—not just to protect their claimed territories but also to assert their strength.
A Look Back: How the Dispute Began
The tensions between India and China over their border aren’t new—they go back to colonial times. One key issue is the McMahon Line, drawn in 1914 by British India and Tibet to mark the eastern boundary. China never accepted it, saying Tibet didn’t have the right to make such agreements on its own. This disagreement simmered for years and became more serious after India became independent in 1947 and China took over Tibet in 1950.
Things came to a head in 1962 with a short but intense war between the two countries. The fighting was mainly over two areas: Aksai Chin in the west and Arunachal Pradesh in the east. China won the war and took control of Aksai Chin, while India kept hold of Arunachal Pradesh, which China still claims as “South Tibet.” The war shocked India and showed how unprepared its military was, and the loss still affects relations between the two countries today.
After the war, both sides tried to manage tensions through diplomacy. Agreements in 1993 and 1996 helped avoid more fighting and kept the peace, but they didn’t actually solve the border issue. In 2005, another agreement tried to lay the groundwork for a final solution, but China and India couldn’t agree on how to interpret it. China focused on old maps and records, while India emphasised areas where people have lived for generations.
In more recent years, things have flared up again. In 2017, Indian and Chinese troops faced off for over two months in Doklam, a disputed plateau near Bhutan. Then in 2020, a violent clash in the Galwan Valley led to the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese troops—the worst violence in decades. These incidents were sparked by road-building projects on both sides. China was building in Doklam, and India was developing a key road near Galwan. These efforts to build up infrastructure have made the situation even more tense and show how easily development can lead to conflict.
Because of this long history of mistrust and recent flare-ups, both India and China are now focused more than ever on strengthening their positions along the border, resulting in a race to build roads, bases, and other facilities in the region.
China’s Infrastructure and Military Buildup: What It Means and Why It Matters
China’s growing presence along the border with India isn’t random—it’s part of a well-planned strategy to boost its national security and tighten its control over contested regions. Through heavy investments and long-term plans, especially under its current Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), China has dedicated around $30 billion to developing its western areas, with much of that going into Tibet and Xinjiang.
Building Roads and Railways
Roads: China has massively expanded its road network in Tibet—from just 7,300 kilometres in 1959 to 120,000 kilometres by 2022. That’s about 5 kilometres of new roads built every day. Two major highways stand out: one connects Xinjiang to Tibet (G219), and the other runs near Arunachal Pradesh (G318). These highways are crucial for moving troops quickly. For example, China improved the roads near Pangong Lake so it could rapidly send reinforcements there during the 2020 border clash.
Railways: China is also building a key railway line from Sichuan to Tibet. A section of it, about 1,000 km long, is expected to be finished by 2030 and will dramatically reduce travel time to the border. China already has the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, which helps move supplies and troops, and is now planning to extend it to areas close to Sikkim, making it even more strategic.
Airports and Heliports
China is building 30 new airports in Tibet and Xinjiang. Though called “civilian” airports, many are designed to also support military operations. One example is the Ngari Gunsa airfield, upgraded in 2023—it can now handle fighter jets and drones. China is also building helicopter bases near high-tension zones like Depsang, allowing it to move troops quickly across the mountainous terrain.
Dual-Use Border Villages
China is also building new villages along the borders with India, Bhutan, and Nepal—628 in total, with 354 near the India-China border. These aren’t just for civilians—they also have military features like watchtowers and barracks. Some are very close to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and satellite images from 2024 show permanent buildings just 10 km from the border. This suggests China is trying to strengthen its claim to the land by physically occupying it.
Military Upgrades
China has also beefed up its military presence. According to U.S. estimates from 2023, up to 200,000 Chinese troops are stationed near the border. They’re backed by high-tech weapons like HQ-9 missile systems, J-20 stealth fighter jets, and lightweight tanks designed for mountainous warfare. In January 2025, China held military exercises near Eastern Ladakh showing off drones and electronic warfare tools—highlighting its focus on winning across multiple fronts, not just the ground.
Why It Matters
These developments give China the ability to act fast, challenge India’s movements, and physically reinforce its claims to disputed areas. The fact that many projects serve both civilian and military purposes fits neatly with Xi Jinping’s push for “civil-military fusion”—a strategy where there’s no clear line between development and defence.
India’s Border Strategy: Building Strength and Staying Prepared
India is responding to China’s growing presence at the border with its own mix of infrastructure upgrades, modern military improvements, and local development projects. The upcoming Union Budget for 2025 is expected to increase funding for the Border Roads Organisation (BRO), which already got Rs 6,500 crore in 2024—showing how seriously India is taking the situation.
Building Roads and Tunnels
Roads: India has already built 1,435 kilometres of roads under its border development plans (ICBR Phases I and II), and another 875 kilometres are planned in Phase III, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh. One major project is the Frontier Highway (NH 913), which runs parallel to the China border and helps move troops to far-off areas like Kibithu. Another key road is the DS-DBO road, finished in 2019, which connects Leh to the Karakoram Pass—cutting travel time to Daulat Beg Oldi from several days to just hours.
Tunnels: India is also digging tunnels through the Himalayas to make sure its border posts are reachable year-round. The Sela Tunnel, completed in March 2024 at over 13,000 feet, provides access to the sensitive area of Tawang near Bhutan even in winter. Other tunnels like Nechiphu and the upcoming Brahmank Tunnel on the Leh-Manali highway improve links to Ladakh, reducing the impact of bad weather.
Railways in the Works
India is working on railway lines to better connect border regions with the rest of the country. The Bhanupli-Leh line (489 km) and the Bhalukpong-Tawang line (200 km) are key projects, though delays mean they likely won’t be ready before 2030. Once finished, these railways will help connect places like Siachen and Tawang, both important from a military point of view.
Airfields and Landing Grounds
India is upgrading 25 Air Force bases, including Nyoma in Ladakh, which should be ready by 2026. These airfields are being prepared to handle advanced aircraft like Rafale jets and Chinook helicopters. In Arunachal Pradesh, seven Advanced Landing Grounds (ALGs) like the one at Pasighat allow for quick deployment of troops and supplies in case of conflict.
Helping Border Villages Stay Alive
Through the Vibrant Villages Programme (Rs 4,800 crore for 2023–2026), India is improving life in nearly 3,000 villages near the border. The goal is to stop people from leaving and to strengthen India’s presence in these areas. Villages like Huri in Arunachal Pradesh are being developed with 4G internet, schools, and even supply centres for the army—similar to how China uses its border villages.
Military Strength
India has kept about 90,000 extra troops along the border since the 2020 standoff with China. They’re supported by powerful weapons like K9 Vajra artillery, M777 ultra-light howitzers, and S-400 missile systems (three units delivered by 2024). In 2023, India tested its Agni-V missile, which can hit targets up to 5,000 kilometres away. The Pinaka rocket system adds precision strike power in rough mountain terrain.
Why It Matters
India is trying to close the gap with China in terms of infrastructure and military logistics. The focus is now on being ready all year, not just reacting to problems when they happen. Big projects like the Sela Tunnel and Nyoma airfield show that India is getting more proactive about defending its borders. Still, China is ahead in terms of speed and scale, and that gap remains a challenge.
How India and China Compare at the Border: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Gaps
When you look closely, both India and China have strengths and weaknesses along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and each side is playing to its own advantages.
Infrastructure
Roads: China is far ahead here, with a massive road network of 120,000 km in its border areas, compared to India’s 1,435 km. This gives China the edge in moving troops and supplies quickly. But India has a smart advantage too—its mountain tunnels help maintain access during harsh weather or blockades, which is especially useful in the Himalayas.
Railways: China’s railway lines—like the one connecting Sichuan to Tibet—are already operational or nearing completion, while India’s projects are still in early stages. This means China can move troops and materials more efficiently over long distances.
Airfields: China is building 30 new airports that help it dominate the skies, but India’s high-altitude bases like Nyoma and its Advanced Landing Grounds (ALGs) provide crucial flexibility right at the front lines.
Military Presence
Troops: China is believed to have around 200,000 soldiers in the region, slightly more than India’s estimated 180,000 (including reserves). But India’s troops are better adapted to high-altitude conditions, giving them an edge in long-term deployments.
Technology: China’s high-tech gear—like stealth J-20 fighter jets and drones—adds to its firepower. India, meanwhile, relies on its powerful S-400 missile defence systems and Rafale jets. India also has weapons like the M777 lightweight howitzers that are specially designed for mountain warfare, helping to balance out China’s numerical edge.
Different Strategies
China: Focuses on taking control early—by building permanent villages near the border and staying ready to deploy fast. It also benefits from a much larger economy ($18 trillion GDP vs. India’s $3.5 trillion), allowing it to spend more on defence and infrastructure.
India: Takes a more defensive approach, strengthening its positions and developing border villages to keep them populated. But India has to work within tighter budget limits—its defence spending in 2023 was $81 billion, while China’s was almost $230 billion.
What Makes the Situation Risky
One of the biggest dangers is that the LAC isn’t clearly marked in many places. There are more than 20 hotspots where things could flare up quickly—like Pangong Lake, Depsang, and Yangtse. China keeps a strong forward presence, while India builds depth with support infrastructure. But both countries have over 50,000 troops close to the line at any given time, which makes the chance of a sudden conflict or miscalculation dangerously high.
Looking Ahead: What Could Happen Next and What Will Shape It
The future of the India–China border situation depends on many shifting factors. Here’s a breakdown of what’s driving it and what the likely scenarios are.
What’s Driving the Future
Trade and Economic Links: India and China traded goods worth $118.4 billion in 2023–24, with India importing over $101 billion. This deep economic link discourages full-scale war but doesn’t prevent small-scale military clashes—like in 2020, when fighting erupted despite $90 billion in trade.
Global Power Politics: With Donald Trump back in the White House in 2025, India’s strategic alignment with the United States is likely to deepen. That may strain its already tense relationship with China. Another major variable is the Tibet issue—especially what happens after the passing of the Dalai Lama, now 89. A shift in leadership there could reignite Chinese claims over Arunachal Pradesh, a region China sees as “South Tibet.”
Domestic Politics: In India, the 2024 election boosted Modi’s strongman image and gave him a fresh mandate. In China, Xi Jinping, after consolidating power at the 2022 Party Congress, continues to place territorial sovereignty above all else. Both leaders are politically entrenched, which makes meaningful compromise difficult.
Possible Future Scenarios
Tense Peace (Most Likely): We’ll probably see continued standoffs and scuffles—like what happened in Yangtse in 2022—but not an all-out war. A disengagement deal made in October 2024 might reduce friction in Depsang and Demchok, but China’s continued buildup—like the new infrastructure at Rongto Chu in 2025—shows deep mistrust.
Escalation into Conflict: A major flashpoint—like a plane being shot down or troops entering a border village—could spiral into a short war. This becomes more likely if U.S.–China tensions spike around 2026.
Easing Tensions (Less Likely): The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2025 could offer a chance for talks, perhaps restarting the Special Representatives dialogue (which has been inactive since 2019). But real progress would require pulling troops back and agreeing on where the border lies—and neither side seems ready for that.
What to Expect
We’re looking at a future filled with occasional flare-ups, increasing military presence, and distrust. China will keep expanding its airfields, while India pushes forward with rail projects. Both sides might avoid open war because of economic risks and international attention (from groups like QUAD or BRICS), but the lack of trust—evident in India’s fifth winter deployment to the LAC in 2024–25—points to a tense and unpredictable decade ahead.
Final Take: A Long-Term Challenge
This border dispute is more than a land issue—it’s about national identity, regional dominance, and power projection. China brings sheer scale and infrastructure, while India leans on resilience, local integration, and strategic positioning. It’s a deadlock where neither can truly dominate without triggering wider fallout. Diplomacy, especially in this milestone year of 2025, is the only path to stability—though any real solution will likely be slow, fragile, and fraught with complications.
————-
Geopolits Research Desk
__________