On Philippines
In 1521, Ferdinand Magellan’s fleet arrived in the Philippines, marking the beginning of more than three centuries of Spanish colonial rule. This archipelago of over 7,000 islands became a coveted prize for global powers, strategically positioned as a gateway to Asia’s wealth. Today, the Philippines remains ensnared in geopolitical rivalries, not by colonial forces, but by the competing interests of the United States, China, and Japan. The country’s struggle for sovereignty continues to unfold against the backdrop of great power competition in the Indo-Pacific.
Geopolitical Realities and Strategic Importance
The Philippines’ geography—situated between the South China Sea and the western Pacific—makes it a critical player in regional security. The South China Sea is a major artery for global trade, with an estimated $3.4 trillion in goods passing through annually. Beneath its waters lie untapped reserves of oil and gas, making it a focal point of economic and strategic competition.
China’s sweeping claims over nearly 90% of the South China Sea—outlined by its controversial “nine-dash line”—have sparked disputes with the Philippines, whose Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) overlaps with Beijing’s territorial assertions. China has reinforced its presence through militarized artificial islands, escalating tensions in the region. Meanwhile, the United States, determined to counter China’s rise, has strengthened its military partnership with Manila, viewing the Philippines as a linchpin in its Indo-Pacific strategy. Japan, though less militarily assertive, has deepened economic and security cooperation with the Philippines to bolster its position in the regional balance of power.
The U.S.-Philippines Alliance Amid Rising Tensions
The enduring military relationship between the U.S. and the Philippines is shaped by historical ties, including the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows rotational U.S. military presence in Philippine bases. This alliance has seen renewed importance as Chinese incursions in the South China Sea intensify.
In a move underscoring the Philippines’ strategic importance, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to visit Manila on March 28-29, 2025, marking his first stop in the Indo-Pacific region. The visit follows heightened maritime confrontations between Chinese and Philippine forces in the disputed waters. Hegseth’s talks with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will focus on countering China’s assertiveness and expanding U.S. security assistance. The Trump administration’s push for “America First” policies has raised concerns about Washington’s long-term commitment to regional stability, but Hegseth’s visit sends a clear signal of U.S. intent to reaffirm its “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty.
During his first call with Teodoro last month, Hegseth emphasized the need to reestablish deterrence in the South China Sea by working closely with allies and partners. Discussions between the two defense leaders also included enhancing the capability of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to better respond to regional threats. The visit highlights Washington’s efforts to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness, particularly as recent incidents between Chinese and Philippine naval forces have intensified in the contested waters.
China, in response, has repeatedly warned the U.S. to stay out of what it calls a “purely Asian dispute.” Beijing argues that Washington’s interventions disrupt regional harmony and escalate tensions. The Philippines, caught in this superpower rivalry, faces the challenge of maintaining strategic autonomy while managing its security and economic dependencies.
A Fragile Balancing Act
The Philippines has historically oscillated between U.S. and Chinese influence, a pattern starkly visible during Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency (2016-2022). Duterte sought closer ties with China, securing promises of infrastructure investments under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, his approach sparked domestic backlash, particularly for downplaying the Philippines’ 2016 legal victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which invalidated China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.
The current administration under Marcos Jr. has taken a more assertive stance, reaffirming its alliance with Washington while resisting Chinese encroachments. However, balancing relations between the two superpowers remains a daunting task. While the U.S. provides military aid and market access, China remains a major economic player, investing billions in Philippine infrastructure projects. This dual dependence leaves Manila vulnerable to geopolitical coercion from both sides.
Military Constraints and Economic Pressures
Despite its strategic location, the Philippines struggles to assert control over its waters due to its limited military capabilities. Its navy remains underfunded compared to China’s formidable maritime forces. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), with an annual budget of just $4.1 billion in 2023, faces difficulties in securing its vast maritime domain.
China’s gray-zone tactics—deploying fishing militias and coast guard vessels—exacerbate Manila’s vulnerabilities. In 2021, hundreds of Chinese boats swarmed Whitsun Reef, an act of aggression that the Philippines could only protest diplomatically. The U.S. has sought to counterbalance China’s activities through joint military drills, such as the Balikatan exercises, which have expanded in scope to include live-fire drills near disputed islands.
The recent U.S. commitment to increasing military assistance underlines the Philippines’ dependence on American security guarantees. The Trump administration’s promise of “more significant support” for Philippine security forces comes amid growing concerns over Beijing’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea. However, China remains a critical economic partner, making it difficult for Manila to completely align with Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy without facing economic repercussions from Beijing.
A Pawn in the Great Power Game
The Philippines’ predicament serves as an admonitory narrative for other small states navigating great power rivalries. Its story reveals a brutal truth: in the high-stakes game of the Indo-Pacific, sovereignty is never truly secure—it must be fiercely guarded, moment by moment, against the relentless currents of superpower ambition and geopolitical intrigue. The upcoming U.S.-Philippines security discussions will likely shape the next phase of this complex geopolitical struggle, determining how Manila positions itself in an increasingly polarized world.
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Rajeev Ahmed
The Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus
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