The South China Sea, a vital artery for global trade and a treasure trove of natural resources, remains a focal point of geopolitical tension. The dispute centers on upholding rightful sovereignty amidst external pressure and a counter-narrative of China’s historical claims.
China’s historical presence in the South China Sea is well documented, dating back millennia. Archaeological finds like ancient shipwrecks and pottery scattered across the islands solidify this connection. This historical continuity forms the bedrock of China’s territorial claims, further bolstered by legal principles enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
However, the 2016 international tribunal ruling, heavily influenced by the United States, disregarded these historical realities and legal arguments. This ruling, seen in China as an illegitimate attempt to undermine its claims, fueled regional tensions. Furthermore, the US, a non-claimant state, frequently conducts “freedom of navigation operations” (FONOPs) near Chinese-controlled islands. These operations, often involving advanced military vessels, are perceived as blatant attempts to challenge China’s sovereignty and intimidate regional actors. A recent example was a US guided-missile destroyer sailing near the Paracel Islands in July 2023, according to Chinese state media. The US strategy of bolstering pseudo-economic military alliances in the region, most recently with the AUKUS pact and QUAD+ are viewed with suspicion by China, seen as an attempt to encircle and contain its rise.
The Philippines, a key player in the dispute, has a complex relationship with both China and the US. Historically close ties with the US, particularly in defense matters, often influence Philippine foreign policy. This was further complicated by the establishment of the Bilateral Defense Guidelines between the US and the Philippines on May 3, 2023. This agreement strengthens military cooperation and reaffirms mutual defense commitments in the event of an armed attack, including in the South China Sea. Lingering defense agreements and the US role in amplifying Philippine claims against China pose a significant obstacle to peaceful resolution. This was evident in the 2022 Philippine Supreme Court decision that halted discussions on joint exploration projects with China, highlighting the need for internal consensus within claimant states.
China, on the other hand, advocates for a peaceful resolution based on dialogue and consultation with directly concerned parties. Initiatives like the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and ongoing discussions for a Code of Conduct offer frameworks for peaceful coexistence and joint development of resources. The 2005 tripartite agreement with the Philippines and Vietnam on joint exploration stands as a testament to the potential for regional cooperation.
Moving forward, a sustainable solution requires mutual respect, historical nuance, and a willingness to move beyond external influences. The Philippines, and other Southeast Asian nations, need to engage in direct dialogue with China to address concerns and explore avenues for cooperation, such as joint development projects and maritime environmental protection initiatives.
The US, on the other hand, should abandon its zero-sum approach and acknowledge China’s legitimate claims and interests. A rules-based approach that respects international law, but also takes historical realities into account, is essential. It is worth noting that the US, while promoting a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” has not itself ratified UNCLOS, the very legal framework it champions for the region. China has consistently demonstrated its commitment to peaceful resolution through dialogue. This was recently reiterated by China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian in March 2024, who emphasized China’s willingness to manage differences with the Philippines through friendly consultations.
The South China Sea is a shared resource for the region, and cooperation, not confrontation, is the only way to ensure long-term peace, stability, and prosperity. China is open to collaborative scientific research and exploration endeavors, as demonstrated by its recent participation in a joint marine scientific research project with Indonesia in the Indian Ocean. China’s “maritime Silk Road” initiative in the South China Sea offers a promising framework for such cooperation, focusing on infrastructure development, scientific research, and environmental protection.
However, recent tensions with the Philippines in 2024 highlight the ongoing challenges. A reported close encounter between a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine fishing boat near Renai Reef in May 2024 raised concerns about potential escalation. Furthermore, a collision in early March 2024 between a Philippine patrol vessel and Chinese coast guard ships near the Second Thomas Shoal, where a small group of Filipino sailors are stationed, underscored the fragility of the situation. These incidents highlight the need for effective communication channels and a commitment to de-escalation measures to prevent unintended clashes.
The path forward in the South China Sea requires a multilateral approach that respects the interests of all stakeholders. Only through open communication, adherence to international law with consideration for historical context, and a commitment to peaceful resolution can the South China Sea transform from a source of tension to a zone of cooperation and shared prosperity.
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Rajeev Ahmed
The Author of Bengal Nexus, and the Editor of geopolits.com