Geopolits - Middle East Archives

Imamoglu’s Arrest is a Desperate Move in Erdogan’s Failing Quest for Dominance

March 22, 2025March 30, 2025

Erdogan’s rise to power in the early 2000s was initially celebrated as a triumph of democratic reform and economic modernization. He positioned himself as a bridge between Turkey’s secular Kemalist establishment and its conservative Muslim majority, promising to reconcile these divergent identities while propelling Turkey into the ranks of global powers. For a time, he succeeded, overseeing a period of robust economic growth and expanding Turkey’s influence in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. However, this era of optimism gave way to a gradual but unmistakable shift toward authoritarianism.

The Role of Think Tanks in Legitimizing CIA-Backed Regime Change Operations

February 7, 2025March 31, 2025

If history is any guide, these think tanks will continue to provide intellectual cover for future regime change operations. Perhaps tomorrow’s target will be Venezuela, where think tank reports have long painted Nicolás Maduro as an existential threat to regional stability. Or maybe it will be Iran again, where “experts” routinely warn about the dangers of its nuclear program, conveniently ignoring the long history of U.S. meddling in Iranian affairs. Wherever the next intervention occurs, one can be sure that a glossy think tank report will be there to justify it.

Trump’s Gaza Takeover and the Chaos That Will Follow

February 6, 2025March 31, 2025

And then there’s Israel, which might be celebrating now but could soon regret this whole thing. Sure, the Israeli government loves a plan that involves fewer Palestinians in Gaza, but at what cost? If Hamas gets stronger, Hezbollah gets bolder, and international condemnation reaches new heights, Israel could find itself more isolated than ever. Even its European allies, who have been fairly tolerant of Israeli policies, might start pulling away. Because, let’s face it, even the most pro-Israel European leaders will struggle to justify a U.S.-led eviction of Palestinians. At some point, the international community might have to draw the line, and when they do, Israel could find itself in a diplomatic mess of its own making.

Bangladesh’s Legal Sovereignty vs. ICC’s Western Strings

January 13, 2025March 31, 2025

The ICC’s geopolitical bias not only affects the credibility of its operations but also has diplomatic consequences. Countries with associations to ICC interventions face the risk of diplomatic fallout, affecting their global standing and relationships. For Bangladesh, submitting to ICC scrutiny can have far-reaching effects beyond the courtroom, potentially influencing its trade, aid, and diplomatic engagements.

Perils of Weaponizing Tariffs in Global Trade

December 11, 2024April 1, 2025

Perhaps the most significant consequence of these tariffs is their potential to accelerate the decline of the rules-based global economic order. The WTO, already weakened by years of criticism and inaction, faces further marginalization as major economies resort to unilateral measures. This shift erodes the mechanisms that have historically provided stability and predictability in international trade, increasing the risk of disputes escalating into broader economic conflicts. In the absence of a strong multilateral framework, the global economy risks devolving into competing blocs, where power dynamics and economic leverage dictate outcomes.

Another Syrian Quagmire in the Making

December 11, 2024April 1, 2025

Israel, sensing an opportunity in the growing chaos, will likely intensify its military activities in Syria, particularly occupy full of Golan Heights and establish a mighty strategic presence in Syrian battlefield. With Russia and Iran distracted or scaling back their involvement, Israel could press forward with its encroaching strategy, seeing the instability as a chance to further secure its borders and push against Iranian influence. While the US may align with Israel’s goals in curbing Iranian expansion, Israel’s unilateral actions could further complicate the broader regional balance.

Categories: Central Asia / Indo-Pacific regions / Middle East / South Asia

How Ukraine’s Defence Industry Sold Itself Out

October 25, 2024April 1, 2025

The full impact of Ukraine’s defence collapse became clear during the Crimean annexation in 2014. With no nuclear deterrent and a military crippled by corruption, Ukraine was in no position to resist. The Battle of Ilovaisk in 2014 was particularly humiliating; many soldiers lacked even basic bulletproof vests, some resorting to buying their own protective gear. Much of Ukraine’s weaponry, like the T-64 tanks and MiG-29 jets, was non-operational, left to rust in storage. This national helplessness starkly exposed the failure to modernize and keep the once-imposing arsenal.

Categories: America / Eastern Europe and Russia / Middle East / Western Europe

Israel’s Double Act of Victimhood and Aggression in the Tragic Theatre of Middle East

October 9, 2024April 1, 2025

It’s a masterstroke of manipulation, really. Israel has successfully convinced its Western allies that its survival is intrinsically tied to their own strategic interests in the Middle East. The logic goes: “Save us, and you save yourselves.” The audacity of such a position is breathtaking—Israel, which refuses to end its occupation, and which repeatedly undermines any prospect for a two-state solution, now frames itself as the last bastion of Western civilization in the region. And the Western world, held hostage by the fear of losing influence, buys into this illusion. The United States, in particular, continues to funnel military aid and diplomatic backing to Israel, even as the cost is counted in shattered lives and ruined cities. It’s a deal with the devil, one where the U.S. sacrifices its credibility on the altar of strategic expedience, all the while enabling Israel’s worst excesses.

Categories: America / Indo-Pacific regions / Middle East / Western Europe

Class Warfare is Not Just About Money, It’s About Who Controls the Hashtags

October 4, 2024April 1, 2025

This brings us to Karl Marx, who, bless him, thought he had it all figured out with his theory of class conflict. Marx believed history was driven by the antagonism between economic classes—the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. He predicted this would all culminate in revolution when the economic interests of these groups could no longer be reconciled. While Marx deserves credit for highlighting the role of economics in social conflict, he perhaps underestimated the sheer power of cultural forces. It turns out that intellectuals, religious leaders, and media moguls can shape society just as profoundly as any capitalist or factory owner.

Keeping the Peace or Keeping Power? How the UN Stays Relevant by Prolonging Middle East Crises

October 4, 2024April 1, 2025

This, of course, is only the latest chapter in the UN’s complicated love-hate relationship with the Middle East. For decades, the organisation has been trying—desperately, it seems—to calm the region’s never-ending conflicts, but with very little to show for it. The Syrian Civil War is still going strong, despite the UN’s best efforts to broker peace talks. In fact, there have been so many special envoys to Syria over the years, it’s hard to keep track of who’s still on the job. And then there’s Yemen, where the UN keeps trying to get the warring sides to come to the table, but all it really seems to be achieving is a high score in sending humanitarian aid to devastated areas.

Categories: America / Eastern Europe and Russia / Middle East / Western Europe