On India-Pakistan Nuclear War
The recent tensions between India and Pakistan, sparked by a deadly attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, have once again raised serious concerns about the risk of nuclear war between the two countries. The attack killed 26 people — 25 Indian tourists and one visitor from Nepal — and India blamed the Pakistan-based militant group called The Resistance Front (TRF). In retaliation, India launched a military operation named “Operation Sindoor,” targeting what it said were terrorist camps in Pakistan-controlled areas. Pakistan struck back, and the situation quickly spiraled into a dangerous exchange of drone attacks and shelling along the Line of Control (LoC).
Because both nations possess nuclear weapons, these developments have sparked urgent questions about what a nuclear conflict might look like — including likely targets, possible outcomes, and the long-term consequences. This analysis breaks down those possibilities and examines the broader geopolitical, economic, and strategic effects such a war could have, especially on nearby countries like Bangladesh.
Nuclear Capabilities and Doctrines
As of 2025, India is estimated to have around 172 nuclear warheads. It has several ways to deliver these weapons, including land-based ballistic missiles like those in the Agni series, fighter jets equipped to drop nuclear bombs, and submarines capable of launching missiles from underwater. India follows a “No First Use” policy, meaning it has pledged not to use nuclear weapons unless it is attacked with them first. This approach is based on maintaining a credible but minimal nuclear force to deter potential threats.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has nearly same number in stockpile, with around 170 nuclear warheads. It also possesses a variety of delivery systems, including ballistic and cruise missiles, and has developed smaller, tactical nuclear weapons meant for use on the battlefield.
Unlike India, Pakistan’s nuclear strategy is less clear. It has not committed to a “No First Use” policy and instead relies on the threat of using nuclear weapons early in a conflict to counter India’s conventional military advantage. This makes the situation more unpredictable, especially during times of heightened tension.
Potential Scenarios and Target Locations
One possible scenario in a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan is a limited exchange, where both sides use tactical nuclear weapons — smaller warheads designed for battlefield use rather than city-wide destruction. In this case, the weapons would likely target military bases, groups of soldiers, and key supply lines near the border or along the Line of Control (LoC). The immediate effect would be devastating in those areas, with many soldiers killed and significant damage to military infrastructure. However, the biggest danger is that this limited strike could quickly escalate into something far more serious — a full-blown strategic nuclear war.
In the second, far more destructive scenario, both countries could unleash their full nuclear arsenals on each other’s major cities and critical infrastructure. In India, cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, and Hyderabad could be targeted. In Pakistan, the likely targets would include Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Faisalabad. The result would be catastrophic, with estimates suggesting that between 50 and 125 million people could die in a matter of hours. Beyond the immediate death toll, the long-term consequences would be severe — including radiation-related illnesses, environmental collapse, and a global humanitarian crisis.
Environmental and Global Impacts
If India and Pakistan were to engage in a nuclear war, the environmental damage would be devastating on a global scale. One of the most serious outcomes would be what’s known as a “nuclear winter.” Massive firestorms caused by the explosions would release an estimated 5 million tons of black soot into the upper atmosphere. This thick layer of smoke would block sunlight, cooling the Earth’s surface by nearly 2 degrees Celsius. The temperature drop could last for at least five years, drastically affecting weather patterns and ecosystems around the world.
As a result of this sudden and prolonged cooling, global farming would suffer severely. Key crops like maize, wheat, soybeans, and rice would see major declines in production — by as much as 11% on average. This drop in food supply would likely lead to widespread shortages and possibly famine, especially in countries already struggling with food security.
On top of all that, the ozone layer — which protects the planet from harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays — would also be damaged. Scientists predict that between 25% to 40% of the ozone layer at mid-latitudes could be destroyed. This would allow more UV radiation to reach the Earth’s surface, increasing the risk of skin cancer, eye damage, and harm to both human and animal health, as well as plant life.
Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Significance
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause far more than just destruction within their borders—it would shake the entire South Asian region. Such a conflict would likely trigger chaos and instability, pushing large numbers of people to flee their homes. Countries nearby could see a sudden surge of refugees crossing their borders, which would put enormous pressure on their resources, services, and political systems. The crisis could easily spill over and destabilise other parts of the region.
On a global scale, the use of nuclear weapons would have serious consequences for international security. It would break a long-standing taboo against using these weapons, weakening the global efforts to prevent their spread. If nuclear arms are used in South Asia, it could embolden other countries to follow suit or push more nations to develop their own arsenals, fearing future threats.
Economically, the impact would be just as catastrophic. The destruction of major cities—many of which are key business and technology hubs—would bring both India’s and Pakistan’s economies to a halt. This would not only devastate local industries but also send shockwaves through global markets. Many international supply chains, especially in critical sectors like textiles, medicine, and information technology, would face severe disruptions. At the same time, countries bordering India and Pakistan would struggle to cope with a flood of displaced people, creating additional humanitarian and economic strain.
Strategic Implications for Bangladesh
Because Bangladesh shares a long border with India and lies close to Pakistan, it would be deeply affected if a nuclear war broke out between its two neighbours. One of the first and most immediate problems would likely be a large wave of refugees fleeing from affected parts of India. This would create an urgent need for humanitarian aid, emergency shelter, food supplies, and health services, putting immense pressure on Bangladesh’s infrastructure and government systems.
The environmental consequences of such a war would also impact Bangladesh. If a nuclear winter were to set in—blocking sunlight and cooling global temperatures—Bangladesh’s agriculture could suffer. This would threaten the country’s food security, especially since a large part of its population relies heavily on farming for both income and sustenance.
Economically, Bangladesh would also take a hit. With strong trade and transport links to India, any disruption caused by war—such as blocked trade routes or a drop in regional demand—would negatively affect its economy. Businesses that depend on cross-border commerce or regional stability would face serious losses.
To prepare for such a scenario, Bangladesh would need to strengthen its emergency response capabilities, including creating plans for food storage, healthcare readiness, and infrastructure support. Diplomatically, it should work through regional organisations like BIMSTEC and IORA to push for peace and dialogue. At the same time, Bangladesh would benefit from broadening its trade relationships beyond South Asia to reduce its dependence on any single regional economy and shield itself from instability.
Conclusion
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan wouldn’t just destroy the two countries involved—it would have serious effects on the whole region and even the world. The damage to the environment, the collapse of economies, and the scale of human suffering would be unlike anything we’ve seen before. This makes it more important than ever for countries to focus on diplomacy, peaceful conflict resolution, and steps toward reducing nuclear weapons.
For nearby countries like Bangladesh, the threat isn’t just theoretical—it’s a real risk that demands preparation. Bangladesh would need to take early action to prepare for emergencies, strengthen its economy by reducing reliance on just one or two trade partners, and play an active role in pushing for peace in the region. These steps could help protect the country from the worst consequences if such a disaster were ever to occur.
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Geopolits Research Desk
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