Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has pledged to recapture ‘every inch’ of Syrian territory and regaining control of major highways at Idlib which would ease Syria’s sanctions-hit economy. The point here, Mr. Assad’s forces depend heavily on the support from Russia and militias backed by Iran. Speaking on Russian news outlet Russia 24, Mr. Assad said that, in the long run, he wanted to normalize relations with Turkey again, despite the conflict.
There is actually no contradiction in his statement, following Erdogan’s visit to Moscow and following the Putin-Erdogan deal, Assad by now knows his strengths and weaknesses. Without Russian support, Assad will go into the oblivion. Simultaneously, if Turkey decides to wage an all-out war against the Assad regime backed by US military aid, that’s another risk which may trigger his downfall. Moreover, claiming ‘every inch’ of Syrian territory is more of a rhetoric.
Now it is Turkey and Russia to decide Syria’s future. There have been several ceasefire talks over Idlib in the past. In September 2018, Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan agreed to establish a “de-escalation zone.” The zone was intended to act as a buffer between Turkey and Syria, with clear lines of control, but the ceasefire collapsed. However, this time it is likely to succeed and also sustain.
Struggling with reliability issues and defections, the Assad government in Syria is weakening. It is also weakening on another internal issue within the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), officers of the SAA reportedly prefer part-time volunteers of the NDF, who they regard as more motivated and loyal, over regular army conscripts to conduct infantry operations and act as support for advancing tanks. At the Idlib region, Assad now needs to strike a balance between his Russian backed forces and Turkish opponents – without claiming any more Turkish lives.
The latest Erdogan – Putin pact is likely to be more than just a temporary maneuver to reduce the Moscow – Ankara tensions. The equation is clear. If Assad can concurrently please Moscow and Ankara, he stays in power and if Assad can draw military support from both Moscow and Ankara – only then he will be able to eliminate his opponent forces.
Now is the time to see what Assad resorts to.
This short analysis is written by Shahriar Feroze Editor-in-Charge , Editorial section , The Daily Observer, Bangladesh.