In mid-December 2023, the infamous radical militant group Jaish Al-Adl, also known as Jaish al-Dhulm in Iran, launched a violent attack on a police station in Rask, a city in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, located in the southeast. This assault tragically resulted in the deaths of 11 Iranian police officers. Subsequently, during a meeting on January 16th, held at the Davos Summit in Switzerland, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian met with Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister. During this meeting, the Iranian Foreign Minister emphasised the crucial role of collaborative efforts between Iran and Pakistan in combating terrorism.
The Pakistani leader acknowledged that both nations are facing similar challenges in their region. He also expressed condolences to Iran for the devastating terrorist attack in Kerman on January 3rd, which resulted in over 90 fatalities. He stressed the importance of enhanced cooperation and resolute action to address radical militant threats. However, on the same day, Iran reportedly carried out precision missile and drone strikes on two major strongholds of Jaish Al-Adl in Pakistan. These strikes are interpreted as a response to Pakistan’s perceived hesitation or inability to effectively control militant threats that compromise Iran’s internal security. This situation arises amidst Iran’s broader conflict against what it views as neocolonial proxies of the United States in the Middle East.
In a retaliatory move, Pakistan conducted airstrikes on the morning of January 18th in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province. This strike occurred less than two days after Iran’s own military engagement inside Pakistan. According to an official release from Pakistan’s military media wing, the operation, codenamed ‘Marg Bar Sarmachar’, targeted hideouts used by the radical militant organisations Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF).
The rapid succession of these military actions from both sides underscores the fragile nature of their bilateral relations, especially in dealing with insurgent groups and cross-border terrorism. The use of such targeted strikes suggests a hardening stance by both nations in addressing what they perceive as threats to their national security, potentially leading to a more volatile regional security environment.
Both Iran and Pakistan have stated that their respective attacks were directed at radical militant groups. Nevertheless, Pakistan has a history of sheltering extremist militants, which aligns with its geopolitical strategy in relation to Saudi Arabia and the United States. Similarly, Iran is often accused of providing a safe haven for radical Shiite militant groups. These groups are primarily anti-Western and have been involved in asymmetric warfare against the interests of the US and Saudi Arabia, particularly in the Middle East.
In the political arena, Pakistan currently faces more instability than Iran. With national elections approaching and an interim government in place, the situation is delicate. The interim government, which has the support of the military, appears to have engaged in this retaliatory action to garner short-term domestic legitimacy, leveraging the narrative of a violation of Pakistan’s airspace. This move, however, might overlook the long-term consequences of such actions.
The international community has not forgotten the numerous instances of the US violating Pakistani airspace under the pretext of targeting radical militants, yet there has been no comparable Pakistani retaliation against US interests. Given the current tensions with three of its four neighbours—India, Afghanistan, and now Iran—it would be imprudent for Pakistan to let the situation escalate, as this could invite interference from these powerful neighbours and extra-regional actors.
This scenario could inadvertently benefit Western interests, especially if the crisis escalates. Such a development could play into the hands of the current army-backed interim government in Pakistan, which might use it to seek legitimacy in the West as a nuclear-armed adversary of Iran.
The recent retaliatory strikes by Pakistan within Iran’s borders appear to be a complex geopolitical manoeuvre, potentially coordinated behind the scenes with the United States and Saudi Arabia. This development suggests a strategic alignment between these nations, though it is noteworthy that China, with its vested interests in regional stability, particularly in Pakistan, may have sought to de-escalate the situation. The stability of Pakistan is crucial for the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a significant investment for China.
Furthermore, there is a perspective suggesting that Iran’s initial assault might have been in concert with China. This theory posits that the attack was intended to jolt Pakistan into addressing its internal and economic security issues, which are impeding both China’s regional economic initiatives and Iran’s geopolitical manoeuvres. This perspective gains another layer of intrigue with the possibility that Iran’s actions were timed to coincide with Indian Foreign Minister Jai Shankar’s visit to Iran, hinting at a potential Indian role in instigating the conflict.
Amidst these dynamics, involving both regional and extra-regional powers, the overarching theme is the fragility of the security infrastructure in the western part of South Asia. The situation is precariously balanced, with the potential to deteriorate further if diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis are unsuccessful.
Given Pakistan’s current reliance on China in both the military and economic spheres, it’s plausible that Chinese diplomatic efforts could play a crucial role in defusing the ongoing crisis. This intervention would be particularly relevant if both Iran and Pakistan recognised that a broader conflict would be detrimental to both parties. Therefore, if both Iran and the Pakistani civilian populace discern that an escalated war would yield no winners but only exacerbate suffering and instability, they might be inclined towards de-escalation. In such a scenario, China’s diplomatic intervention could be pivotal.
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Written by Rajeev Ahmed
Geopolitical Analyst, Strategic Thinker and Editor at geopolits.com