The world of international relations and geostrategy is governed by a multitude of theories, each attempting to explain the behaviour of nations and predict the outcomes of their interactions. Among these theories, the Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST) has long held sway. However, recent global events have led to a re-evaluation of its relevance and effectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to work with new theories of international relations for emerging economies. Here I am proposing a novel theory—the theory of Augmentism—in the field of geostrategy.
Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Overview
Before going into the theory of Augmentizm, let’s delve into the Hegemonic Stability Theory. This theory posits that a stable international system requires a single dominant power, or a hegemon. This hegemon, through its economic and military might, creates a global order, sets rules, and maintains peace. The hegemon’s role is to deter aggression, promote free trade, and provide a currency that can be used internationally.
However, the theory has come under intense scrutiny and criticism in recent years. Critics argue that the hegemon, instead of fostering stability, can make the world worse and unsafe for survival and living. This critique is particularly directed at the United States, which has been the world’s dominant power since the end of World War II.
The argument is that the US, in its role as the hegemon, has indirectly forced other countries to adopt the Theory of Offensive Realism. This theory suggests that countries are primarily motivated by the pursuit of power and security and use aggressive strategies to achieve their goals. This is in contrast to the Theory of Defensive Realism, which posits that states are security maximizers and that their primary concern is to maintain their position in the international system.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark example of the collapse of the Hegemonic Stability Theory. The bloody war, with its global implications, underscores the failure of a single dominant power to maintain stability and prevent conflict.
The Ukraine crisis has completely exposed the limitations of the hegemon in enforcing peace and stability. It has also highlighted the propensity of states to resort to offensive realism when they perceive their security to be threatened.
Towards a New Geostrategic Paradigm
The decline of the Hegemonic Stability Theory signals a shift in the geostrategic paradigm. It calls for a reassessment of the role of power in international relations and the mechanisms for maintaining global stability.
While the transition may be fraught with challenges and uncertainties, it also presents an opportunity to create a more balanced and equitable global order. This new order would be one where power is more evenly distributed and where nations are motivated by mutual respect and cooperation rather than the pursuit of dominance.
The Interplay of Geostrategic Theories in National Defence Strategy
As said earlier, a multitude of theories strive to elucidate the actions and interactions of states in the complex field of international relations. Four such theories—Defensive Realism, Balance of Power, Neoclassical Realism, and Liberal Institutionalism—are particularly noteworthy due to their applicability and explanatory prowess.
Defensive realism posits that states, driven by security concerns, aim to maintain their position in the international system. They tend to avoid aggressive expansion as it could lead to a counterbalancing coalition by other states. This theory can guide an emerging power to focus on maintaining its security without provoking unnecessary conflicts.
The balance of power theory suggests that states continuously strive to prevent any single state from dominating the system. They do this by balancing their power through an internal military buildup or by forming alliances. An emerging power can use this theory to understand the importance of alliances and the need to maintain a balance with its rivals.
Neoclassical realism, on the other hand, argues that a state’s actions on the international stage are influenced by both its external pressures and its internal dynamics, such as state structure and domestic politics. This theory can help an emerging power recognise the interplay between domestic and international politics in shaping its foreign policy. This theory provides a clear understanding of the geostrategies of major geopolitical powers like the US, China, and Russia.
Lastly, liberal institutionalism proposes that international institutions and treaties play a crucial role in promoting cooperation and reducing the likelihood of conflict among states. This theory underscores the importance of international cooperation and can guide an emerging power to engage more with international institutions.
Augmentism: A Novel Theory Emerges
By amalgamating these aforementioned theories, each offering a distinct perspective, into a novel theory of geostrategy, an ascending power can acquire substantial knowledge for the formulation of its national defence strategy. This novel theory should be called Augmentation Theory. The proposed “Augmentation Theory” or “Augmentism” represents a comprehensive approach to geostrategy that integrates key elements from the Theory of Defensive Realism, the Theory of Balance of Power, the Theory of Neoclassical Realism, and the Theory of Liberal Institutionalism. This theory posits that an emerging power can yield more if it prudently incorporates these theories into its national defence strategy. By doing so, it acknowledges the importance of maintaining security (Defensive Realism), balancing power among rivals (Balance of Power), considering both domestic and international factors in the pursuit of power (Neoclassical Realism), and fostering cooperation through international organisations and treaties (Liberal Institutionalism). Augmentism, therefore, offers a holistic and nuanced approach to national strategy, enabling an emerging power to navigate the complexities of the international system effectively and efficiently. It signifies a shift from a singular, dominant theory to a more integrated, multi-dimensional perspective on geostrategy. Therefore, by understanding and applying augmentation theory, or augmentism, an emerging power can navigate the complexities of the international system, balance its relations with other states, and enhance its security and prosperity. Augmentism is a very delicate balancing act that will seek to work only on the positive and sustainable growth of international relations, not otherwise, but one that can lead an emerging power into a more secure and influential position in the global arena.
——-
Written by Rajeev Ahmed
Geopolitical Analyst, Strategic Thinker and Editor at geopolits.com