I don’t believe the extensive military operation on a specific Syria-Turkish border will deteriorate Turkey-Russia relations. Rather, the military operation will deliver a couple of clear messages to two countries. Assad junior will come to know where and how his forces have been engaged in unwarranted military atrocities. Additionally, he should come to understand that his military has become divided into two ‘ invisible fractions’.
Second, Putin will come to know where Assad is repeatedly failing in the Idlib region. On a wider range, this military operation has a strategic goal for determining future Syria-Russia relations other than redefining Syria-Turkey relations. Not to forget, Turkey is home to the highest number of Syrian refugees numbering over 3 million and has provided over $8,000,000,000 in aid as of September 2019.
On one hand, Turkey will give refuge to homeless Syrian refugees, while on the other Turkish soldiers will continue to get killed by Syrian government forces, how can that happen?
Assad junior is evidently losing control over his military establishment.
To finish with, Operation Spring Shield would not have been launched in the first place had Assad and his ‘ divided military’, according to this analyst, been cautious about respecting the lives of its neighboring countries. You simply cannot bite the very hands that feed you.
The Turkish military offence is also a wake-up call for Assad junior to rectify his blunders and restore command over his supporting forces.
President Erdogan hasn’t sought revenge, I believe he doesn’t want Syria to follow Libya’s agonizing fate. But can Assad junior learn from it and sustain ????
This short analysis is written by Shahriar Feroze Editor-in-Charge , Editorial section , The Daily Observer, Bangladesh.