With the changing geopolitical equations across the South Asian belt, US-Bangladesh strategic relations will likely get new calibrations. Since the independence and during the Cold War era, Bangladesh held little strategic importance to US strategies in South Asia. The full focus of Washington was interested in containing Soviet influence through Pakistan and the Gulf monarchies, countering Soviet influence in New Delhi by maintaining cordial relations with India by allowing it to create its own sphere of regional influence in South Asia as well as creating a level of understanding with China by respecting Beijing’s red lines at a time when Moscow and Beijing were experiencing ideological differences. When it came to understanding Bangladeshi affairs, the US relied on the Indian line of thoughts.
After the end of the Cold War, the world has witnessed changes in geopolitical dynamics. A multipolar world has emerged and the US with the collective West is being increasingly challenged by a resurgent Russia and an advancing China. US narrative of unipolar world order after the demise of the Soviet Union is no longer prevalent under the present geopolitical context. The massive Belt Road Initiative undertaken by China for restructuring the present shape of global trade has forced Washington to pivot itself to the Indo-Pacific region and reorient itself with emerging economies with an important strategic setting like Bangladesh. The growing Russo-Chinese collaboration in various regional theatres is slowly undermining US strategic interests across the regions.
The strategic position of Bangladesh has the potential to allure the strategists and policymakers in Washington. Russia is looking to secure access to a warm water port overlooking the Indian Ocean through Pakistan; China is securing crucial ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar for reducing its dependence on Malacca Straits. US influence over the Asian countries is constantly hard-pressed by new rapprochements between gulf monarchies and Russia-China. Beijing is showing a proactive approach in the Pacific region. The Indian economy has suffered setbacks due to some controversial economic policies and having grim prospects for maintaining communal harmony on the advent of Hindutva dominated polarization, which will further secure Chinese interests in the region. With such a South Asian equation, the US will seek to engage more with the smaller countries, particularly with the 31st largest economy of the world, which is also currently looking to modernize its armed forces significantly by 2030 and explore the full potential of the blue economy to keep up with changing world order.
Since the independence, Bangladeshi foreign policy hardly noticed significant policy change, which is primarily moulded with the principles of non-alignment, non-interference, and anti-imperialism. However, with changes in geopolitical order, these policies, although on paper, took a backseat. The leadership is increasingly orienting itself according to the changing balance of power across the globe. Economics and trading are now at the forefront of international relations instead of a defined political ideology. With the change of paradigm, Bangladesh is increasingly facing change in its security parameters due to the advent of new factors like maritime security, cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, which has pushed the policymakers in Dhaka to transform its Armed Forces to be capable of addressing the new security challenges.
Over the years, the relationship between Bangladesh and the US was significantly covered by monetary aid through the means of the World Bank and IMF. With the booming Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector, Bangladesh made significant inroads in the US market, which is the leading source of the export earning of Dhaka. The relations with the two countries were mostly shaped by trading, with limited involvement in the defence sector. The core foundation of a strategic partnership between an economically heavyweight country and a developing country is basically shaped by a close defence partnership followed by investments in infrastructure developments in the latter. Analyzing from this viewpoint, the US will have to make significant progress to match its Chinese counterparts for building up a significant strategic rapport with Bangladesh. US involvement in the Bangladeshi defence sector is significantly dwarfed by Chinese and Russian hardware. Since Dhaka’s joining of the Belt Road Initiative, China is scaling up investments in Bangladeshi infrastructure developments. Russia is helping Bangladesh building up its first nuclear power generating facilities.
The US has been seen pushing to take part in the efforts of increasing the defence capabilities of Bangladesh and making investments in several economic sectors as well. Apart from being the largest export destination of Bangladesh, the US is the largest source of foreign direct investment. Chevron, a US energy company, alone produces half of the total Bangladeshi natural gas consumed for domestic purposes. The vast majority of the US investments in Bangladesh are in the petrochemicals, finance corporations and power generation sectors. Being a key player in producing natural gas from the land source, Washington may also harbour interests in taking part in the offshore exploration of petrochemicals in Bangladeshi waters. The US has also emerged as the largest donor to respond to the Rohingya refugee influx inside Bangladesh.
Understanding the scenario involving Beijing and Moscow in Bangladesh, the US is trying to create a place of its own in the military sector of Bangladesh for its own strategic goals. The US is looking to take the relations with Bangladesh in the defence spectrum from dialogues and routine training exchanges to the level of selling bigger and advanced military hardware like attack choppers, combat aircraft and surface to air defence and communications systems. The US is looking to take a slice from the Chinese monopoly of the Bangladeshi defence market. The two sides in 2019 began discussions on possible sales of attack helicopters and missiles. The US is increasingly trying to take a proactive approach in reaching out to Bangladesh, instead of looking at it through Indian lenses, after it recognized Bangladesh as an “emerging partner,” alongside Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives in South Asia in the June 2019 report of the Department of Defence. Although no news of formal notifications to the US Congress has not been made, the two sides are currently understood to be working with some agreements like the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), which will look to facilitate advanced military weaponry sales to Bangladesh. The GSOMIA and ACSA happen to be the two of four agreements that act as the foundation stone for the U.S. interoperability among the US and other signatory militaries.
The US is interested to see Bangladesh on board for achieving Washington’s goal in the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), which is to counter a rising China in the Indo-Pacific region and safeguarding the interests of the US, India, Japan and Australia, also together known as the Quad. It intends to counter growing Chinese influence as well in the smaller countries. A key aspect of the IPS is to build rapport among the countries for combating transnational crimes like trafficking, terrorism, cybercrime, piracy and illegal fishing. The American call for freedom of navigation in these waters is to establish the use of all sea resources by every nation for their benefits, which may sound appealing to the smaller maritime nations in the region, but also serve as an American purpose of containing China.
Bangladesh has so far followed a balanced approach while accommodating every key player in the region while keeping its interests secure. It has not entertained any venture that could have unsettled the equilibrium of power in the Bay of Bengal. Hence, Dhaka will need to critically break down and analyze the aspects of IPS while engaging in strategic cooperation with the US in a broader scope. The US-made military hardware can be highly effective in battlegrounds and creating a sense of deterrence, but also comes with binding conditions, sometimes even making the recipient countries acting as geopolitical pawns against America’s adversaries. Amongst the three elements of the IPS – economics, security and governance, security will lead the agenda of any strategic partnership involving the US. Any security question raised by the US will mean the participatory country act in line with the US strategy of countering China in the Indo-Pacific region, where the smaller countries will end up antagonizing China in the long run.
The US was looking for a foothold in the Indian Ocean countries. Back in 1998, against the backdrop of the devastating flood, the US government proposed a Status of Forces Agreement with Bangladesh. The agreement would have allowed US troops to enter Bangladesh without passports and visas and without requiring any declaration of military hardware. The proposal did not proceed any further as it would have meant a significant encroachment upon the country’s sovereignty. Now in 2021, the US will again to look for gaining a foothold in Bangladesh with the prevailing uncertainties in the region. The continuation of the Hindutva frenzy in India will pose significant security risks for the Indian Union, which can spill over across the borders. The Rohingya refugee influx also poses security risks for Bangladesh if the current state of destabilization inside Myanmar persists. The threat of instability will be an ideal springboard for a long term US military presence in the region, which may not be an encouraging view for China.
Bangladesh will need to draw up boundaries of such upcoming strategic cooperation, or it might risk drawing irks from China, whose ascendance into a global echelon of superpowers is all but confirmed. Bangladesh depends tremendously on military needs on China. Beijing is offering massive investments in the infrastructure and industrial sectors, which will play important role in the coming days for further economic growth. Can Bangladesh stand up to the binding conditions that come up with strategic defence sales made by the US? Will, it not mean any challenge for the Bangladeshi Foreign Policy motto of “Friendship to all, malice to none” in the future? Antagonizing a superpower living in the neighbourhood will jeopardize the future economic and military security of Bangladesh in the future. Dhaka will need to follow a balanced approach in keeping up with the superpowers while entering into any framework with the US which will involve strategic and security cooperation, where Bangladesh will retain its sovereignty, ensure its security and economic growth, and will not risk angering any of the superpowers.
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Written by Khalid Ibn Muneer