The recent visit of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh to China has brought to light several complexities within the evolving China-Bangladesh relationship. Framed within the broader context of the “Global South,” this partnership is often portrayed as a model of mutual benefit and cooperation. After the visit, the relationship between Bangladesh and China has elevated from a strategic partnership to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. While the visit underscores a mutual desire for a long-term relationship, China has opted for a cautious, measured approach. In contrast, the current government of Bangladesh urgently seeks both immediate benefits and long-term commitments from China.
China’s recent engagement with Bangladesh exemplifies a ‘Measured Approach’ diplomacy or ‘Go Slow’ diplomacy. This strategy emphasizes cautious engagement, thorough assessment, and incremental progress, reflecting China’s concerns about accountability and transparency within Bangladesh. The promise of only one billion yuan during the Prime Minister’s visit, falling short of Bangladesh’s demands of USD 20 billion, underscores this cautious stance. China’s restrained financial commitment is influenced by a number of critical factors.
One might be the latest visit of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister to India. The outcome of the visit can be perceived by China as Bangladesh playing in the Indian court. This visit, coupled with the deepening strategic partnership with China, places Bangladesh in a delicate position. Bangladesh’s diplomatic strategy involves balancing its relations with India, its “political friend,” and China, its “development friend.” This balancing act is fraught with uncertainty, especially as geopolitical tensions between India and China escalate. China’s perception of Bangladesh leaning towards India could complicate the dynamics of China-Bangladesh relations, potentially influencing China’s future engagement strategy. The failure to sign an agreement with India on Teesta water sharing and the reluctance to implement a Chinese project for Teesta water management further complicate Bangladesh-China relations, especially given that China has already completed a feasibility study on the proposed initiative.
The influence of Chinese loans or financial support on Bangladesh’s domestic political dynamics is another critical aspect. If China were to provide substantial financial support to Bangladesh, it might have significant domestic repercussions. Such financial help could temporarily shield the Bangladeshi government from public discontent over economic mismanagement and administrative inefficiencies. By alleviating immediate economic pressures, the government could potentially strengthen its grip on power, allowing it to exercise authority more forcefully. This scenario raises concerns about increased governmental power potentially leading to injustices and diminished democratic accountability. Consequently, a more powerful and entrenched government in Bangladesh could complicate China’s geopolitical calibration, making it tougher for China to navigate its strategic interests with a government that feels less pressure to reform and more emboldened to pursue its agenda unilaterally.
Besides, the widespread allegations of corruption within Bangladesh’s bureaucracy further complicate the China-Bangladesh relationship. Corruption not only undermines governance and accountability but also affects international confidence in Bangladesh’s ability to manage foreign funds effectively. This situation has likely influenced China’s measured approach, as China seeks to mitigate risks associated with financial mismanagement. Additionally, Bangladesh’s current economic situation, characterized by various challenges, plays a crucial role in shaping China’s cautious engagement.
On the other hand, the China visit did not fully integrate Bangladesh into China’s global initiatives. While the joint statement and signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) between the two countries hinted at alignment with China-led initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Civilizational Initiative (GCI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) remained ambiguously addressed. This selective engagement reflects China’s strategic calculations, emphasizing economic and developmental cooperation while keeping security collaborations vague.
The nature of the MoUs also raises critical questions. Most MoUs in the joint statement speak of hope rather than tangible outcomes, reflecting a diplomatic failure from an economic diplomacy perspective by the newly formed government of Bangladesh. The inability to secure substantial financial commitments or concrete project agreements indicates a gap in effectively conveying Bangladesh’s economic needs and strategic importance to China.
One significant aspect of the MoUs is the agreement between Chinese state media and Bangladeshi state media. This collaboration suggests China’s intent to push its strategic narrative in Bangladesh, countering Western narratives and promoting China’s global initiatives. Media cooperation can be a powerful tool in shaping public opinion and fostering a favorable environment for bilateral relations. However, it also raises concerns about media independence and the potential influence of external narratives on domestic discourse.
China’s measured approach may also be influenced by global allegations of its “debt trap” strategy, wherein developing countries are burdened with excessive debt that they struggle to repay, thereby increasing China’s leverage over them. This concern has likely made China more circumspect in extending substantial financial assistance to Bangladesh without stringent safeguards and accountability measures.
Rumors suggest that the majority of the present cabinet members of Bangladesh hold pro-Indian views, leading to concerns about China’s underrepresentation in the new cabinet. This dynamic might affect the level of engagement and influence China can exert in Bangladesh, complicating the bilateral relationship. If China’s strategic interests are not adequately represented or advocated within Bangladesh’s government, it could hinder the progress and depth of the partnership, further influencing China’s cautious and measured approach.
To maximize the benefits of this partnership while safeguarding national interests, Bangladesh must address governance issues, enhance transparency, and diversify its economic and strategic partnerships. Strengthening domestic capabilities and fostering a resilient economic framework are crucial steps toward achieving a balanced and sustainable relationship with China. By doing so, Bangladesh can navigate the intricate geopolitical landscape, leveraging its strategic position to secure long-term benefits while mitigating potential risks and vulnerabilities.
————————————
Rajeev Ahmed
The Author of Bengal Nexus, and the Editor of geopolits.com
English (UK) 
English (United States)